Archive for April, 2008

Despite being up about 33 points at one stage during the day, the FTSE closed down 2 points today at 6,087.3, whilst the FTSE 250 closed down nearly 115 points at 10,122.3.

Over the pond, by the time London closed the DJI was up a healthy 111 points at 12,943, whilst the S&P500 was up 8 points at 1,399 and the Nasdaq up 17 points at 2,443.  feeling is fairly positive on what is released by the Fed Res after their 2-day meeting.

Back here in London the miners weren’t doing very well as the US Dollar was stronger, affecting metal prices.  Vedanta had a bad day, down 105p at 2,245, whilst peer Kazakhmys closed down 66p at 1,582 after announcing its copper cathode production was down 16% compared to last year, blaming winter weather, and ENRC (Eurasian Natural Resources)closed down 47p to 1,200. Anto did well, though, closing up 19.5p at just shy of 803p after saying its own copper production was up over 8% in the 1st quarter, although its costs more than doubled.

On to the banks, which also had a poor day. RBS was down a further 5.75p to close at 345p as investors began to show concern about the rights issue, whilst peer Barclays closed down 3.5p at 456.5, Lloyds TSB down 6.25p at 432.5p, and HBOS down another 16.25p at 470p after a Cazenove downgrade to ‘in-line’ from ‘outperform’.  HSBC, on the other hand, closed up 8.5p at just shy of 880p after a Goldman Sachs upgarde to ‘buy’ from ’sell’ and upped its target by 20% as well.

The oil majors didn’t do very well either, as the price of the black stuff came down a little as the dollar got stronger.  BG Group didn’t have a good day, closing down 77p to 1,231 aftre news of a £6 bln bid for Australia’s Origin Energy Ltd was made known. BG announced record profits yesterday, together with a 76% rise in profit for the 1st quarter. BP closed down 2p to 611.25 despite a Credit Suisse upgrade to ‘outperform’ from ‘neutral’ and 720p target, whilst RD Shell closed down 15p to 2,027,5 despite a Credit Suisse 23-quid target.

Home Retail Group closed up over 21p at 264p after the retailer reported a 15% rise in full year profit, whcih was expected. This prompted Panmure Gordon to reiterate its ‘buy’ rating, saying Argos owner Home Retail delivered decent figures which were at the top end of expectations.  It added that it felt HRG is better placed than most retailers for a hard ride in the High Street.

BSkyB closed up 4.5p to close at 545.25p after announcing a rise of 56,000 subscribers in th 3rd quarter, and said less people were defecting to rivals. It also said that 9 month sales were up 10% to £3.706 bln. ABN Amro liked the figures and news and reiterated its ‘buy’ rating. BSkyB’s peer ITV closed up 1.6p to 66p.

Standard Life closed up nearly 23p to just shy of 231p after the Edinburgh-based insurer said UK sales for the 1st quarter were up 8%. Peer Admiral Group closed up 50.5p to 871.25p after a Citigroup upgrade to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’.

AstraZeneca closed up 36p to close at 2,128.5 after announcing it has submitted a New Drug Application to the U.S. FDA for approval of a new drug for the treatment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PartyGaming closed down 2.25p to close at 24.25p on the back of rather mediocre 1st quarter figures, prompting broker Arbuthnot Securities to repeat its ’sell’ stance and 15p target. The on-line gaming group announced 1st quarter revenues up to US$128.9m from US$106.2m last year for the same quarter, but this was really just as expected.

The FTSE was about even at 6,089 in its first hour of trading, maybe down a point or so.  The FTSE 250 was actually up over 40 points at 10,048.  There is still some caution in the air until everyone hears what the Feds are going to do with interest rates.

Last night over the pond it was a similar scenario. The DJI closed down nearly 39 points at 12,831.94. The Fed Res is expected to cut rates by another 25 points, or 0.25%, to try and put more confidence back in to the US economy.  We should hear about the time London closes later today.  If rates do xcome down again that quarter per cent to 2% then economists believe they will stay there for a while. All this has helped the US Dollar, which is now a bit stronger than it weas last week.  This has caused oil and metal prices to pull back a little too.

Brent crude (Jun del) has pulled back from recent record levels of above US$117 bbl and was trading at around the US$113.50 bbl in London this morning.

Back here in London, the miners took a hit due to the stronger dollar and a decent recent run. Rio was down 145p at 5,865, Vedanta down 90p to 2,260, BHP down 34p to 1,784p, Kazakhmys down 27p to 1,621 after it told of problems in its copper cathode production due to severe winter conditions, causing a fall in production, and Anto was down 4p to 779p.

UK house prices were 1.0 percent lower during April compared with a year earlier, the first year-on-year fall for 12 years, according to building society Nationwide.

Higher mortgage rates and tighter lending criteria are blamed for buyers staying away from the property market thsi month, causing the average house price to fall 1.1% from March to £178,555. Also, UK consumer confidence fell to its lowest level  for nearly 16 years during the month. It’s now quite obvious that there is a rather major economic slowdown building.

Back to stocks, where BSkyB had a decent start today, up 15p to 555p after announcing another new 56,000  customers for the 3rd quarter and added that it has seen an improvement in the number of customers leaving Sky for competitors. It also said that sales for 9 months was 10% up at £3.706 bln, but operating profit fell due to the cost of the move into broadband.

Home Retail Group, who own Argos, was up 9p at 251p after it reported an expected 15% rise in full year pre-tax profit, but added that Homebase, its home improvement business, had made a “weaker than anticipated” start to the new year.  Broker Landsbanki retained its ‘hold’ rating.

Standard Life was 2.25p higher at 250p after the Edinburgh-based insurer said total sales for UK in the 1st quarter were up 8%, which was better than expected. Peer Admiral Group also had a good start, up 30p to 851p after a Broker Citigroup upgrade to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’.

BG Group didn’t do so well, down 35p to 1,273p despite telling us of its 76% rise in net profit for Q1. Other related news may have affected the price as it was made known that BG made a £6 bln takeover bid overnight for Australia’s Origin Energy Ltd.

Game Group was up another 7p to 271p after rumours of a bid form Texas-based Gamestop.

Partygaming was a penny down at 25p after reporting a 21% rise in 1st quarter revenues and added that it was confident about its prospects for 2008.

Bodycote International was up 30p to 242p after an upbeat trading statement, in which it it said it may sell its testing unit.

The FTSE closed just a point down at 6,089.4 today, which was about 44 points off the day’s high, and about 38 points up from the low.  The FTSE 250 closed down 110.1 points at 10,007.4.

By the time London closed, the DJI was about 30 points down at 12,842, whilst the S&P500 was down about 5 points at 1,400, and the Nasdaq down about 6 points at 2,418. The Feds announce their interest rate decision tomorrow, and the feeling is one of caution after the economic data was fairly poor.  The Standard & Poor’s & Case Shiller home price index, which is for 20 cities, was down by 12.7% for February compared to last year, which is the worst figure since the index began in 2001. The US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index came in at 62.3 in April, down from the revised 65.9 in March, but better than the 61.0 expected.  However, this was still the weakest figure since March 2003.

Back here in London, the oil majors had the best day after both announcing decent 1st quarter figures. RD Shell closed up 112p at 2,035 after reporting a 25% rise in 1st quarter earnings, whilst BP closed up 34.5p at 613 after reporting a 63% rise in earnings.  The BP figures were much better than expected. Peer BG Group closed up 10p at 1,308 on the back of the Shell & BP figures.

Insurance giant Friends Provident closed up 1p at 118.2 after an update that said its 1st quarter sales were up 11% on last year, which prompted Panmure Gordon to reiterate its ‘buy’ stance.  Peer Admiral Group closed up 6.5p at 820.5 after also giving an upbeat trading statement in which it said its 1st quarter sales were up 14% on last year and it is on for full-year results at least in line with market expectations.

On to the banks, especially HBOS, where the proposed (or alleged) £4 bln rights issue was finally confirmed. The shares closed down 9p at just shy of 487p, despite starting the day positive. The bank said the rights issue was to build its reserves in preparation for a more challenging macroeconomic environment. This prompted broker Collins Stewart to reiterate its ’sell’ stance. Peers were also down, with RBS clsoing down nearly 4p at just shy of 351p, and Barclays down 10.5p at 460p. barclays has yet to confirm a rights issue, which has been rumoured for a week or two now.

The miners also didn’t do very well after Anglo gave a rather mediocre trading update.  Gold and other metals fell, adding to the gloom.   Anglo closed down 92p at 3,249 after it its said platinum and coal production fell in the 1st quarter, but blamed flooding and electricity problems in South Africa for most of the fall. This prompted Citigroup to downgrade Anglo to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’. Peers were down too, with Kazakhmys having the worst day, closing down 77p to 1,648, whilst BHP closed down 59p at 1,818, and Rio closed down 216p at 6,010.

Pearson closed down 10p at 648p after Credit Suisse told clinets to move into Reed Elsevier as it reckons pearson will suffer in the US, where nearly 40% of its revenue comes from schools, which are having their budgets tightened. Pearson’s US peer McGraw-Hill announced a 1st quarter drop in profit by 44%, which obviously didn’t help. Thomson Reuters, recent joiner of the FTSE 100, closed down 10p at 1,583. They give an update this Thursday.

ARM Holdings closed up 11.5p at a quid-even after annoucning 1st quarter profits fairly flat, but adding that sales growth in 2008 would be simlar to 2007. Broker Arbuthnot reiterated its ‘neutral’ rating and 90p target for ARM.

Game Group closed up over 12p at 264.5p after reporting a 156% rise in underlying pre-tax profit and adding that trading so far in the current year was strong. This prompted ABN Amro to upgarde the computer games group to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’.

Pub group JD Wetherspoon closed up 4p to 273p after an update which said that sales were down just 0.1% this last quarter. Broker Dresdner Kleinwort gave an upgrade to ‘add’ from ‘hold’, whilst broker Altium raised its rating to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’.

Premier Foods closed down just over 7p at 126.5p after a UBS downgrade to ‘neutral’ from ‘buy’ citing valuation grounds.

Genus closed down 48p to 795p after an update in which it said that whilst its dairy semen area was still strong, other areas of its business for non-dairy was challenging. This prompted a Panmure Gordon downgrade to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’.

Taylor Nelson closed up 33p to 204p after confirming it’s in talks with Germany’s GfK about a possible merger. This prompted Investec to upgrade TNS to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ and add a 230p target, up from 197p.

Good morning all

I have never been so excited…The live room is off to a great start and the team are working brilliantly together!!!

Our aim is 50 - 100 pips a day and we smashed it today… Zak banked over 130 points in 2 trades within the 1st hour!!! A legend in the making…

The new charts are very easy to use and i will be producing videos to show you how to set them up and also running daily Q&A’s starting from next week.

Take a look at a few examples from this morning and please remember you have to have been trading with Market Bytes for 1 month, before you can enter the Live Room…

AUSUSD - Look how the 4 hour and 1 Hour CCI (and a lower high) made a clear break lower…

EURJPY had all MA’s pointing downwards and all CCI’s tradingin the red for a perfect break.

EURUSD - Clear support line on chart and waited for break… All CCI’s showing red for clear direction.

GOLD - Clear support line on chart and CCI’s all red for move lower…

USDCHF - Triangle formed and break appeared at 1.0350..Look at the green CCI’s for move up.

Have a great afternoon..

Dan

The FTSE was up about 30 points this morning at 6,121, whislt the FTSE 250 was actually down 14 points at 10,103.

Last night over the pond the DJI closed down just over 20 points to 12,871.75, whislt the S&P500 closed down just about 1.5 points at 1,396.37, and the Nasdaq did the opposite, up about 1.5 points at 2,424.40.  The Feds speak tomorrow after thier 2-day meeting, in which they will decide whther inteest rates come down another 25 points.  Or it doesn’t.

In the Far East today, Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a holiday, and in Hong Kong the Hang Seng was up about 280 points at 25,950 by its lunchtime.

Staying in the Far East with oil, the price of the blackstuff was backing off a little.  Hopes of the Scottish refinary strike getting sorted sooner rather than later look on the cards, which may have helped pull the price back from those dizzy heights of US$120 bbl. Light Sweet (Jun del) was trading at US$118.50 bbl, down 25cents, whilst Brent (Jun del) was down a similar amount at US$116.50 bbl, 2-bucks cheaper.

Back here in London it was the oil majors that were strong, despite prices checking today, as recent strength in the oil price helped figures.  BP was up 27p at 605p, RD Shell up 90p at 2,013p, BG Group was up 30p at 1,330, and cairn Energy was up 65p at 3,064p.

Insurer Friends Provident gave a decent update, saying sales up 11% on the same quarter last year, helping shares rise 1.1p to 118.3p.

Bank HBOS was up 2p at 498p despite this £4 bln rights issue that is coming.  Apparently.

The Bank of England will be announcing mortgage lending figures today, which are expected to be rather downbeat, and much lower than last year.

The mining stocks were down this morning, with Anglo giving mediocre results, causing Citigroup to downgrade to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’. With metal prices also falling, others dropped too. Anglo was down 45p to 3,296, BHP down 38p to 1,839, and Rio down 110p to 6,116.

British Airways was down another 3p to 219.5p after press reports that the airline may have to come clean and issue a profit warnbing.  Fuel prices and the Terminal 5 debacle causing massive costs to the airline.

Pub group JD Wetherspoon was up 12p to 281p after a decent trading update. Broker Altium gave an upgrade to Tim’s Martin’s pub group to added ‘buy’ from ‘hold’.

Genus, the animal gene working group fell 45p to 798 after a rather lack-lustre trading statement.

Premier Foods was down 2p to 132p after a UBS downgrade to ‘neutral’ from ‘buy’.

Game Group was up nearly 20p to 271.5p after some decent results.

Despite being up as much as 43 points during the session, the FTSE ended the day down a point at 6,090.4, whilst the FTSE 250 closed up 98.5 points at 10,117.5.  It seems everyone is waiting for the interest rate news from the US on Wednesday.

By the time London closed the DJI was down about 8.5 points at 12,883, whilst the S&P500 was about even at 1,398, and the Nasdaq up 1.5 points at 2,424.5.  All fairly flat.

With the price of the blackstuff so strong again, oil exploration stocks did well. Cairn Nergy closed up 93p at 2,999 on the back of a broker upgrade to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ on news from its Indian project at Rajasthan. Tullow Oil closed up another 7.5p at 764.5p, a new high.  The two main heavyweights did ok, with RD shell down 4p at 1,941 after being higher during the day, and BOP closed up 1.5p at 578.5p.  Shell and BP report 1st quarter results tomorrow. Brent crude (Jun del) hit US$117 bbl during the day.

The miners were strong as metals prices wwere up again. Copper giant Xstrata closed up 89p at 4,094 after a Credit Suisse 50-quid target, Anto up 20p at 802p, and Kazakhmys closed up 61p at 1,725.

On from this morning, Whitbread closed up 37p at 1,227 after decent resluts which were much bettre than expectations. Merrill Lynch reiterated its ‘buy’ stance.

On to retailers, where the non-food guys made up some of the ground lost recently. Home Retail Group closed up 11p at 251.25p, Next up 28p at 1,125, Kingfisher up 2.3p at 131p, and Marks & Sparks up nearly 15p to 375.25p.

The banks did ok today as well, with the planned (alleged?!) HBOS £4 bln rights issuse being taken well.  HBOS closed down 1.25p at just shy of 496p, but this wasn’t really taklen as negative.  The bank may announce its plans tomorrow. RBS, who already announced the small matter of their own £12 bln rights issue, closed 5.5p higher at 354.5p, and Alliance & Leicester closed up 15.5p at 530p.

Cadbury Schweppes was in talks with Wrigleys regaring their chewing gum departmnet.  It appears there could be a deal to be done after the Cadburys de-merger of its beverage and confectionary parts of the business.

Shire Pharma closed down 37p to 903p after a Credit Suisse downgrade to ‘underperform’ from ‘neutral’, with a 823p target, down from 930p.

And also on from this morning, financial software group Sage received a Morgan Stanley downgrade to ‘underweight’ from ‘overweight’ and a reduction in target from 255p to 185p, causing the price to close down nearly 4p at 201.25p.

After the Office of fair Trading alleged that tobacco firms were all in cahoots, the related shares were down. Imperial Tobacco closed down 7p at 2,543, and BAT was down 11p to 1,960. The major supermarkets were also affected, as they retail the said smokes too. Tesco closed down 6.5p to 420, Morrisons down 8.25p to just shy of 290p, and Sainsburys closed down nearly 9p at 384.

New FTSE 100 joiner Wood Group, the oil services company, closed down 19.5p at 434p after profit taking now that it’s finally in the top flight.  A decent run up to the joining of the index is usual.

Still having a good few days was Stagecoach Group, who climbed another 27.5p to close at just shy of 249p, up 12.5% on the day after announcing a decent update on business so far this year, which was far better than expected. Credit Suisse reiterated its ‘outperform’ stance and 275p target.

Hi Dan,

I hope you are well and enjoying your new life in Spain.

I have just closed a dollar yen trade I opened last week for a 240 pip profit.

Using :

A daily chart for the trend,

A three hourly chart for entering a trade, a candle that opens above the 50 ma after a retracement is when to get in, do you remember  me talking about the 50 ma in London?

Look at the three hour chart last Thursday at 15.00 hrs, also the previous Wednesday 16th at 09.00 hrs, what a trade.

I am looking at this setup for trades long or short, the 50 ma should be above the 200ma (long) or bellow the 200 ma (short) this gives a good chance of going with the trend on the daily chart.

Thanks for the education videos,  the three hr and box strategy work well with ma’s.

I am looking forward to the live sessions next month.

Regards to you and James,

Bob

The FTSE was up baout 35 points at 6,128 in its first hour, whilst the FTSE 250 was up about 120 points at 10,140.

Over the pond on Friday, things were looking more settled as the DJI closed up nearly 43 points at 12,891.86, whilst the S&P500 closed up 9 points at 1,397.84, and the Nasdaq actually closed down nearly 6 points at 2,422.93. It had started lower, but picked up as investors felt the week’s satisfactory earnings reports, and that the Fed’s cash input had helped to steady the economy. This week investors will be looking forward to the US Feds Open Market Committee meeting, which is expected to lower its benchmark borrowing rate. The Fed Res cut its key federal funds rate by 3/4% to 2.25% last month, and economists expect a further 1/4% fall this coming Wednesday, although this isn’t certain.

In the Far East today the Nikkei 225 closed up 30.90 points at 13,894.37, whilst in Hong Kong the Hang Seng was up about 95 points at 25,610 by lunchtime chow time.

Staying in the Far East, oil had almost hit that US$120 bbl figure today, wiht he new Grangemouth refinary problems in Scotland causing further concern. Light sweet (June del) was at US$119.93 bbl, whilst Brent North Sea crude (Jun del) was up nearly a buck at $117.25 bbl, about 30cents off its peak of the day.

Back here in London it was Oil stocks, Whitbread and the banks that were all chirping away this week.  Whitbread was up 32p at 1,222 after reporting over a 26% rise in full-year earnings, which was much better than expected. It also said that it plans to increase the size of its Premier Inn hotel chain by 50% in the next five years. Pre-tax profit before exceptional items for year end 28Feb08 was up at £210.3m, up from £166.5m last year. Broker Merrills gave a ‘buy’ recommendation and a 23-quid target.

The banks were also doing well, with press reports that HBOS will be deciding today whether to take a £4 bln rights issue of its own, just to shore up its reserves. HBOS was up a penny at 498p, whilst peers were also doing ok - RBS up 6p at 355p, Barclays up 8p at 475p, and Alliance & Leicester gained 7 at 521-1/2.

As we emntioned above, with oil at nighg-on US$120 bbl, the oil majors were also up.  RD Shell was up 23p at 1,949, BP was up 4p at 584p, BG Group was up 5p at 1,311, Cairn Energy was up 95p at 3,001, and Tullow Oil up 18p at 775.

The miners also did well, with Xstrata up 87p at 4,092, Lonmin up 69p at 3,264, Anto up 15p at 797p, and Vedanta up 32p at 2,389p.

Shire Pharma didn’t have such a good start, though, down nearly 40p at 901p after a  Credit Suisse downgrade to ‘underperform’ from ‘neutral’ and a target cut to 823p, down from 930.

Financial software group Sage was down 4p to 201p after a Morgan Stanley downgrade to ‘underweight’ from ‘overweight’ and a target cut to 185p, down from 255p.

Stagecoach was up over 13p to 235p after a trading up0date that said this last quarter was much better than expected.  Stagecoach said the JV with Virgin Rail had helped its earnings, which is hopes will be at about 20p.  Its peers responded too, with Go-Ahead Group up 30p at 1,687p and National Express up 14p at 930p.

Centrica down a penny at 298p after a Societe Generale downgrade to ’sell’ from ‘hold’ and a target reduction to 260p from 295p.

Shaftesbury was down 10p to 523p after a Citigroup ’sell’ rating and 5-quid target.

The FTSE ended the day up 40.7 poinst at 6,091.4, whilst the FTSE 250 closed up 44.6 points at 10,019.

By the time London closed, over the pond the DJI was down about 83 points at 12,765, the S&P500 down 5 points at 1,384, and the Nasdaq down about 32 points at 2,397.  Most of the bad feeling was due to Microsoft giving a disappointing forecast, but also the news that the consumer sentiment index was down to 62.6 from 69.5 for the previous month, which is the lowest level since the early 1980s. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of US economic activity, so this was a concern for investors.

Back here in London, it was the financials that did best today. News that Merrill Lynch was going to pay its usual dividend brought some cheers. The banks were also up, with Barclays clsing up 12p at 467.25, lloyds TSB up just over 6p at 442.25, HBOS up 8p at 497p, and Alliance & Leicester closed up 21.5p at 514.5.

Staying with financials, the London Stock Exchange (LSE:LSE) closed up 40p to 1,144, whilst ICAP closed up 23.5p at 595.5, and Schroders closed up 35p at 1,055.

With oil nudging US$120 bbl, the stronger dollar helped check it back a little.  This small retreat helped airlines and travel companies with aeroplanes, with British Airways closing up 8.5p at 221.25, and Thomas Cook close up 8.5p at 266p.

Transport firm Go-Ahead was up 207p at 1,657 said its 3rd quarter trading was strong and added that it expects this year to be as expected, and ’significantly’ ahead of last year’s record results. Peers followed up, with FirstGroup closing up 25p at 553, basically on the back of Go-Ahead, and Stagecoach closed up 18.25p at 221.25p.

Carphone Warehouse closed up 8p at 257p after a Morgan Stanley upgrade to ‘overweight’ from ‘equal-weight’. The broker said it wasn’t so concerned about cashflow as growth was very good.

Miners didn’t do so well despite metals strong. Anto closoed down 26.5p at 782 on the back of an Evo downgrade to ‘reduce’ from ‘add’, Anglo down 27p to 3,381, and Kazakhmys closed down 27p to 1,664.

Shire pharma was down 42p at 940p after its recent strong run as investors took some profit. 1st quarter results this week had been as expected.

WPP closed down 37.5p at 592.5, off 6% on tha day, after the advertising and marketing group reported weaker than expected 1st quarter growth of 5% and added that revenues were affected by a slower March in Europe.

Mitchells & Butlers was down 3.5p at 309.25 after announcing it is not considered to be in an ‘offer period’ under Takeover Panel rules and added that it is continuing discussions with private equity investors in relation to a possible investment for a stake of up to 29.9 percent (just under the magic 30% rule figure) in the group at a premium to the current share price.

Game Group was nmearly 8p up at just shy of 257p as investors await the full-year results next Tuesday where a 150% increase in pre-tax profit is expected.

My first week live trading started with a deposit of £500 on Tuesday 22nd and 2 trades, playing £1 per pip.
Long on eur/gbp profit £33.00 short on uds/cad profit £48.00
Wed 3 trades. long on eur/usd lost £40.00 long on eur/jpy profit £43.00 short on usd/cad profit £102
Thursday 4 trades. long on eur/usd profit £208.00 long on aud/usd profit £128.00 long on eur/jpy profit £35.00 short on nzd/chf profit £26.00
Friday 3 trades long on usd/chf lost £50.00 short on gbp/jpy profit £68.00 and long on usd/chf profit £35.00
Balance as at midday Friday £1130
My strategy is to open one or two trades then go away and leave it for a couple of hours. When I get back see if I have been stopped out or am in profit. I usually set my stop loss 40 or 50 pipps away, so that if I get stopped out I haven’t lost too much.
Gordon.