Just two trades this morning in the Live Room, one was a stop out, but the other was a part exit at +30 pips and a further +68 pips before the closing of the trade, almost 100 pips in all. 

GBP/USD - Long Call

- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4891
- 1st Level 1.4861, +30 (1/2 position)
- 2nd level 1.4823, +68

EUR/USD - Long Call

- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2526
- 1st Level 1.2501, -25 (full position)

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After a quiet morning session, with just one break even trade, the afternnon session was fantastic, with 4 decent trades on breakouts and level breaks. The levels we will make trades at are available prior to the session in the members’ area TV Blog.  Charts showing trades as per call are added later.

Afternoon Session

- After a quiet London session there was the expected volatility during the US opening.
- We had 4 great trading setups that were being discussed in the Live Room.
- Below the trades are outlined in more detail.
- Pay particular attention to how the price action matched the levels today.

EUR/USD – Long

- Entry on the break of 1.2648
- Trade: Break of resistance level on the 1hr chart
- 21CCI: Bullish
- Penetrated the 50MA from below and the 200MA after the break
- 1st Level 1.2699, +51
- 2nd Level 1.2774, +126
- Stop: -25
- The pair broke through a major trendline near the 2nd resistance level
- The pair has pulled back after hitting the resistance area 1.2774-97 (grey line)
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)

GBP/USD – Long

- Entry on the break of 1.4995
- Trade: Break of resistance level on the 15min chart
- 21CCI: Bullish
- Breakout of pennant
- 1st Level 1.5025, +30
- 2nd Level 1.5094, +99
- Stop: -25
- After hitting the 2nd Level the pair retraced to 1st Level and then broke through the 3rd.
- The Pound made a high of 1.5252 after the break
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)

USD/CHF – Short

- Entry on the break of 1.2020 or 1.2001
- Trade: Break of trendline or support level on the 15min chart
- 21CCI: Bearish
- Penetrated the 200MA on the 15min chart
- 1st Level 1.1965, +55 or +36
- Stop: -25
- The Swissie traded as low as 1.1944 after the break
- The pair has bounced back after hitting the major trendline and 2nd support level
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)

AUD/USD – Long

- Entry on the break of 0.6507
- Trade: Break of resistance level on the 15min chart
- 21CCI: Bullish
- 1st Level 0.6530, +23
- 2nd Level 0.6564, +57
- Stop: -30
- After hitting the 2nd Level the pair retraced to 1st Level and then capped at 0.6594
- The pair pulled back after hitting the resistance line 0.6594 (grey line)
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)

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The Live Room was successful again this morning, with just two trades actioned.  One, unfortunately, was a stop out after looking promising, but the other was a decent trade, with a nice breakout.

GBP/USD - Long Call

- Entry: 1.5031
- 1st Level 1.5052, +21 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level 1.5084, +53 (1/4 position)
- 3rd Level 1.5052, +21 (1/4 position)

USD/CAD - Short Call

- Entry: 1.2246
- 1st Level 1.2273, -27 (full position)
- Stop: 1.2273

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Another decent morning in the Forex Live Room.

Some decent break outs.  4 trades.  All good.

Market Bytes Live Room, 17th November 2008

AUD/USD - long

Entry: 0.6485
Exit: full position @ 0.6525 = +40 pips

EUR/USD - long

Entry: 1.2663
Exit: Full position @ 1.2685 = +22 pips

USD/CHF - short

Entry: 1.1965
Exit: Full position @ 1.1932 = +33 pips
1/2 @ 1.1913 = 0 pips

USD/CAD - short

Entry: 1.2336
Exit: 1/2 @ 1.2315 = +21 pips
1/2 @ 1.2336 = 0 pips

Afternoon calls left with subscribers.
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The FTSE 100 closed down 100.81 points at 4,132.16, whilst the FTSE 250 closed down 150.73 points at 5,977.03, and for those that are interested the FTSE Small Caps closed down 26.47 points lower at 1,895.06. It was the banks that were under pressure again. The G20 summit was being studied, and Wall Street opened negatively and fell early doors.

Over the pond, by the time London closed the DJI was down 157.07 points to 8,340.24, the S&P500 down 14.89 points to 858.4 and the Nasdaq Composite off 21.26 points to 1,495.59. US stocks fell sharply in morning deals as Citigroup prepared to slash 50,000 jobs and after Japan slipped into recession, heightening doubts after a summit of world leaders produced little new to bolster the global economy.

Back here in London, news from the Confederation of British Industry was that the UK will suffer its sharpest economic contraction in almost 20 years next year, with the number of registered unemployed rising to nearly 3 million by 2010.

The banks were down, with the outcome of the G20 summit being uncertain as to the effect on world markets. RBS closed down 6.3p at 44.7p, Barclays down 5p at 154.1p, Lloyds TSB down 17p at 149p, and HBOS closed down 12p at 74.5p.

Interdealer broker ICAP closed up 13.5p at 251.5p ahead of tomorrow’s results.

On to the insureres, where The Pru closed up 1.5p to 291.5p, and Norwich Union owner Aviva closed up 5p at just shy of 350p.

On to the miners, where most fell. Khazakhmys closed down 32p at 237.75p, BHP down 33p at 872p, Rio down 104p at 2,458p, Anglo American down 84p at 1,207p, and Xstrata closed down 71p at 876.5p.

On to the oil majors, where falls were evident. BP closed down 0.25p at 487.75p, RD Shell down 33p at 1,622p, and BG Group closed down 39p at 806.5p.

On to the High Street, where a bleak Christmas was expected. Marks & Sparks closed 4.5p at 215.5p, Next down 36p at 945p, and Tesco closed down 21.9p at 308.7p. ASOS, on the other hand, did well, with the Camden-based retailer closing up 21p at 278p after reporting sales had doubled in H1. 

House sales were down.  Asking prices were down by nearly 3% last month, according to RightMove, with asking prices now down over 7% in a year. This had a m ixed effect on housebuilders, although two or 3 managed a positive day. Taylor Wimpey closed up 0.6p at 9.89p, Bellway up nearly 10p at 507p, and Persimmons closed up 7p to 247p.  Negatives were Bovis Homes, down 1p at just shy of 323p, and Redrow Homes down 2p at 162p.

Car rental company Avis Europe gave a poor picture, blaming fuel prices and such like for everyone getting public transport. Avis shares closed down another 1.5p at 5p.

With diamond sales falling, as is the price of the things too, Gem Diamonds closed down 131.5p at 213.5p after warning it will make a loss this year.  A carat stone is now about $1,200, half of what it was a year ago.

Premier Foods closed up 3.5p at 30.5p after rumours that it has sold it’s Mr Kipling delicious cake business to United Biscuits.

The FTSE closed down 12.81 points at 4,169.21, whilst the FTSE 250 closed down 94.33 points at 6,156.85, and for those that are interested the FTSE Small Caps closed down 34.66 points at 1,897.3. The market had been down much more durting the day, but recovered somewhat later on.  The heavyweight mining stocks and financial sector was pulling the FTSE down. Wall Street was up, then down, but looks better as we close.

Over the pond, by the time London closed the DJI was up nearly 7 points, but was looking stronger after its fall.  The S&P500 was up just 3 points at 855, and the Nasdaq  was down 12 points at 1,487. Wall Street had started better, but fell back as downbeat outlooks from IT chip maker Intel and Wal-Mart Stores were taken on board, although now looks to be climbing, we think. 

Back here in London, it was the weak miners and financial sector that pulled the FTSE down.

The miners were down again, with BHP closing down 22p at 926.5p, Lonmin closing down 64.5p at 944.5p, Xstrata closing down 48p to 952p, and Anglo American down 31p to 1,248p.  Rio Tinto did ok, though, closing up 24p at 2,570p.

On to the banks, where Lloyds TSB closed down 6.3p at 167p, HBOS down 6.8p at 90p, and Barclays down 10.5p at 157.7p.

Insurance companies tried to fight the rot, with Royal Sun Alliance closing up 3.2p at 144p, Old Mutual up 4.6p at 54.1p, and Admiral up 5p at a Tenner-even.

The London Stock Exchange (LSE:LSE) closed down 60p to 519.5p after a rather cautious outlook statement to go with results showing H1 pre-tax profits were up 57%.  ICAP, the Interdealer broker, had a bad day, closing down 29.5p at 255.25p after a Morgan Stanley downgrade to ‘underweight’ from ‘equal-weight’ who also added a cut in target to 195p, down some 60%. Hedge fund manager Man Group did better, especially after the pressure of late, closing up 18.5p to 208.5p. Asset manager Schroders closed down 18.5p at 781.5p, whilst peer 3i Group closed down 24.5p at 425p.

On to telecoms, where telecoms giant Vodafone was up again, adding another 2.2p to close at 124.2p. BT Group also did well, closing up 10p at 122.5p after announcing it was cutting 10,000 jobs as well as Q2 profits down 11%, which wasn’t as bad as expected. There is a lot of bad news built in to the BT share price already.

On to the supermarkets, where Sainsburys closed up 9.5p at 289.25p, and peer Tesco closed up 6.8p at 329.1p.

On to beer, where SABMiller fell 24p to 929.5p after saying that cost pressures and the strength of the US dollar are likely to ‘adversely affect results’, despite reporting a 5% rise in H1 pre-tax profit.

Housing website Rightmove closed down 4.75p at 180.25p after announcing that some 1,900 agents had dropped off its membership, with many going bust and others just not paying the subscription charges. Mmebers were at 10,700 on 31Oct08, a 15% drop from the highest figure of around 12,600 about year ago.

Ladbrokes, the bookie, closed up 3.75p at 161.75p despite saying that betting shop takings were flat, and that they’ve been significantly hit by ‘unfavourable football and horseracing results’. Favourites winning, we think that means.

Just some info - after two fantastic weeks things slowed this week.  Four decent trades this morning under the current unusual market conditions, behaviour and circumstances, should be seen as good, and we also had one negative trade today.  The negative Cable trade was soon sorted on the reverse, and despite showing a 35 pip loss on paper that trade, many chopped early at 20 or less as it was then obvious there was a reverse.

Here are this morning’s trades.  Nothing to write home about, compared to last week and previous week, but a steady turn. 

EUR/USD - short

 Entry: 1.2436
 Exit: 1/2 @ 1.2404 = +32 pips
  1/2 @ 1.2436 = 0 pips

GBP/USD - short

Entry: 1.4829
 Exit: Full position @ 1.4864 = -35 pips
USD/CHF - long

Entry: 1.1913
 Exit: 1/2 @ 1.1934 = +21 pips
  1/2 @ 1.1913 = 0 pips

GBP/USD - long

Entry: 1.4949
Exit: 1/2 @ 1.4981 = +32 pips
 1/2 @ 1.4949 = 0 pips

USD/CAD - short

Entry: 1.2325
Exit: 1/2 @ 1.2295 = +30 pips
1/2 @ 1.2325 = 0 pips

Each morning we enjoy success and a real Live Room experience.  Members enjoy a Morning Call and Afternoon Call & Update each day, accessed via the members’ area.

The FTSE 100 closed down 64.67 points at 4,182.02, whilst the FTSE 250 close ddown 153.33 poiints at 6,251.18, and for those that are interested the FTSE Small Caps closed down 27.84 points at 1,931.96. News from the Bank of England didn’t help the markets today. 

Over the pond, by the time London closed, the DJI was down 250 points to 8,444, whilst the S&P500 was down 27 points to 872, and the Nasdaq down 36 points at 1,545.  There was concerns over the motorcar sector, as well as the financials sector, of course. Retailer Best Buy gave a bearish update, too.

Back here in London, the Bank of England confirmed that the UK entered a recession in the middle of 2008 which will continue well into 2009. The BoE also warned that the whole economic landscape has changed dramatically since August, adding that the UK economy could shrink by 2% over the next year, compared to its recent estimate of ‘broadly flat’ growth made in August. The BoE then said that it now expects inflation to fall to 1% by 2010, which is half of its 2% target. BoE governor Mervyn King didn’t mind saying that the BoE would be prepared to cut interest rates further if needed.

Unemployment was up at its highest in 11 years, leaping another 140k in the quarter to September to 1.82 million.

On to the market, where telecoms giant Vodafone had another good day, up 7p at 122p.

On to the banks, where a fairly decent start soon tailed off. RBS closed down 1.5p at 56p, Barclays down 10.8p at 168.2p, Lloyds TSB closed down 4.1p at 173.3p and HBOS lost 2.4p at 96.8p.

Hedge fund manager Man Group had a bad day, closing down 58p at 190p, down nearly 25%, after further reaction to the H1 results announced last week. A Citigroup downgrade to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’ didn’t help.

On to retail, where Sainsburys closed up 7.5p at just shy of 280p after reporting rising sales and profits for the 6 months to 04 October 2008, lifting its interim dividend to 3.6p from 3p. Peers didn’t do so well, with Morrisons closing down 3p at 245.25p, and Marks & Sparks closing down 19.5p at just shy of 236p.

On to the black stuff, where a barrel was down another $1.50 to US$57.80 bbl (Dec del). BP closed down 23p at 476.25p, RD Shell down 29p at 1,582p, and Tullow Oil closed down 21p to 477p. Oil services company AMEC closed down nearly 17p at 476.25p despite a decent start after saying it was confident of lifting margins, adding that its order book was up 12% this year.

On to the miners, where metal prices fell back again on demand concerns. ENRC closed down 27p at 256p after news that it cut ferrochrome and iron ore output, adding that full year profits would be at the lower end of expectations. Lonmin closed down 71p at 1,009p on news that workers began a strike at its Limpopo mine in South Africa. Antogfagasta closed down 7.25p at 353.25p, Anglo American down 117p to 1,279p, and Vedanta Resources closed down 60p at 623p.

Scottish & Southern Energy closed up 55p at 1,199p after announcing that profits had more than halved during H1, adding that it reckons things won’t be too bad at year end. Pre-tax profit for H1 was down to £171.1m from £723.6m last time out.

The FTSE closed down 157.23 points today at 4,246.69, whilst the FTSE 250 closed down 252.05 points at 6,4040.51, and for those that are interested the FTSE Small Caps closed down 50.88 points at 1,959.8. The FTSE did recover some, but did have a poor day. Oil and metals prices pushing heavyweight commodity issues down and with Wall Street trading sharply lower as Toll Brothers reported a downturn for October.

Over the pond, by the time London closed the DJI was down 238 points at 8,632, whilst the S&P500 was down 25 points at 894, and the Nasdaq down 41 points at 1,575. Wall Street was down after a poor update from cofffee giant Starbucks as well as a downbeat statment from Toll Brothers.

Back here in London, it was the commodity stocks that were retreating after further concerns over world economy and demand levels.

On to the black stuff, where the majors were hit. BP closed down 20.5p at 299.25p, RD SHell down 78p at 1,611p, and BG Group closed down 94p at 904p.

On to the miners, BHP closed down 104p at 1,019p, Rio down 252p at 2,592p, Anglo American down 110p to 1,396p, and Xstrata was 115p lower at 1,076p.

On to telecoms, where Telecoms giant Vodafone had a decent day.  One of the few. Decent interims, which were better than expected, saw the telecoms King close up 6.7p at 115p, with profit up over 10% to £7.2bln and a 3.2% lift in the interim divvy to 2.57p per share.

On to the banks, where Lloyds TSB and HBOS were under pressure on further doubts over the merger plans. Lloyds TSB closed down 17.8p at 177.4p and HBOS was down 8.5p at 99.2p. Peers fell too, with Barclays down 6p at 179p and RBS down 3.5p to 57.5p.

Hedge fund manager Man Group closed down nearly 33p at 248p after a Morgan Stanley price target cut to 260p from 455p.

On to the High Street, where news that retail sales were down 2.2% on last year according to the British Retail Consortium today, giving concerns on the Xmas build up. Marks & Sparks was down 0.5p at 255.25p, Next down 9p to 1,111p, and even supermarkets Sainsburys and Morrisons were down 1.75p at 272.25p and 4p at 248.25p respectively.

The FTSE 100 closed up 38.96 points at 4,403.92, whilst the FTSE 250 closed up 70.98 points at 6,656.56, and for those that are interested the FTSE Small Caps closed up 21.57 points at 2,010.68. The miners did well today. New York opened up.

Over the pond, by the tiome London closed the DJI was up nearly 90 points at 9,033, whilst the S&P500 was up nearly 6 points at 937, and the Nasdaq up just 2 poinbts at 1,649. Wall Street was doing ok early doors, especially due to China’s $500 bln ‘get going’ package, but the Genral Motors news was holding back the general confidence somewhat.

Back here in London, it was the miners that were advancing. The Chinese planned $500 bln plan to help the manufacturers there meant that the miners may see demand rise again. Rio closed up 226p at 2,844, Xstrata was up 123p at 1,191p, Kazakhmys up nearly 15p at 338p, Anglo American was up 156p at 1,506p, and ENRC up over 11p at 314.25p.

The oil majors were also mostly up, with BP up 4.75p at 519.75p, and BG Group up 18.5p at 998p, but a late fall saw RD Shell close down 4p at 1,689p. The oil services companies did well, with Wood Group up 22p at 239p, and peer AMEC up 23p at 539p. Smmaer firm Fortune Oil closed up 0.12p to 8.38p after reporting some strong growth in its Q3 natural gas sales. 

The banks didn’t do much. RBS closed down 3p at 61p, Lloyds TSB down 5.3p at 195.2p, and HSBC was down 11p to 735.5p.

Staying with financials, but on to insurance, Norwich Union owner Aviva closed up 13.25p at just shy of 390p, Legal & General up 0.5p to 80.5p, and Admiral closed up 8p to 988p.

Man Group closed up 5p at just shy of 281p, Schroders up 59.5p at 850p, and 3i Group up 18.25p at 498.25p.

On to the supermarket giant Tesco, who closed down over 20p at 323p after news that its South Korean business, which its largest market outside the UK, had seen a fall in sales.

On to telecoms, where Cable & Wireless closed up 7.3p to 142p after reporying revenue up 5% to £1.6bn for H1, with EBITDA was up 26% to £357m, giving a healthy post-tax profit (before exceptionals) up 72% to £175m.

Majestic Wine closed down 10.25p at 137.75p after reporting a 25% fall in H1 pre-tax profit to £5.6m, adding that it sees the usually bouyant Xmas trading period being challenging.